Venezuelan opposition skeptical Maduro will follow through on election deal

CARACAS/HOUSTON (Reuters) – Some members of the Venezuelan opposition said on Monday, the eve of the planned signing of an agreement on presidential elections next year, that they doubted President Nicolas Maduro will follow through on his promises.

Maduro’s government and the opposition are set to meet in Barbados to sign a deal on election conditions, marking a restart to talks paused since last year aimed at finding a way out of Venezuela’s long political and social crisis.

There has been no announcement on what the deal contains, but sources have told Reuters it includes an election date in the latter half of 2024, permission for international observers and lifting of a ban blocking some or all opposition primary candidates from holding office.

At least two candidates initially set to run in the primary this week have bowed out because they are banned, though front-runner Maria Corina Machado, who is also barred, remains in the race.

The opposition considers the bans unlawful, and Washington has rejected any roadblocks to opposition candidates’ race to the presidency.

The agreement to be signed on Tuesday would lift all public office bans, one opposition source told Reuters, but its wording is too vague to inspire confidence that Maduro will honor the deal.

“There’s, once again, a general sense of distrust after the many failed attempts to make Maduro follow his promises,” the source said.

Four other opposition sources agreed, with one saying the deal was largely negotiated by the United States.

“Maduro is forced to concede right now, but the situation could be the opposite next year,” one said.

“We all have our doubts, but we’re exhausting our options,” said another opposition source. “What’s left to us is to make all the attempts necessary via negotiations.”

“It’s a negotiation to get free and moderately competitive elections, (the government) won’t give full (free) conditions,” the latter source added.

The U.S., which is expected to loosen some sanctions in recognition of the government-opposition deal, will act only once the deal has been signed, sources told Reuters on Monday.

Further relaxation of U.S. sanctions would depend on whether Maduro makes further concessions and organizes fair elections that meet international standards, those sources said.

A large portion of what will be signed on Tuesday was discussed by Maduro’s representatives and U.S. officials at negotiations in Doha, according to sources.

Maduro envoys and the opposition have met sporadically for years.

In 2022 they agreed to use some $3 billion in frozen funds for humanitarian needs, but execution of the U.N.-administered fund is still pending. The United States expanded Chevron’s oil license to operate in Venezuela in response.

Negotiations must result in deals, said Benigno Alarcon, director of the political studies center at Andres Bello Catholic University in Caracas.

“What people expect from a negotiation process is that the negotiation allows, among other things, a return to democratic normalcy,” Alarcon said.

Political agreements have often proven more difficult than deals on sanctions, the economy and legal actions against individuals, he said.

“We’ve seen deals are possible, but it’s always been very complicated to have deals on political issues. We need to see if it’s possible this time.”

(Reporting by Marianna Parraga in Houston and Mayela Armas in Caracas. Aditional reporting by Deisy Buitrago.; Writing by Julia Symmes Cobb; Editing by David Gregorio)