Bank Negara’s OPR stays firm at 3%

KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara kept the overnight policy rate (OPR) unchanged at 3% upon the conclusion of its monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting, in line with market expectations.

According to a Bloomberg survey, all four economists polled also expect Bank Negara to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.0%.

“At the current OPR level, the monetary policy stance remains supportive of the economy and is consistent with the current assessment of the inflation and growth prospects.

“The MPC remains vigilant to ongoing developments to inform the assessment on the outlook of domestic inflation and growth. The MPC will ensure that the monetary policy stance remains conducive to sustainable economic growth amid price stability,” Bank Negara said in a statement.

The central bank noted that the global economy continues to expand albeit moderately, supported by domestic demand amid improvement in trade activity. Favourable labour market conditions in some countries continue to support consumption activity.

Looking ahead, Bank Negara said growth in regional economies is expected to improve, while China’s growth would likely remain modest given continued weakness in the property market

Global trade is expected to strengthen as the global tech upcycle gains momentum. Global headline and core inflation edged downwards in recent months with prospects of monetary easing in some countries in the second half of the year, it said.

Nonetheless, the global monetary policy stance is likely to remain tight in the near term, as inflation remains above average.

The growth outlook remains subject to downside risks, mainly from an escalation of geopolitical tensions, higher-than-anticipated inflation outturns, and volatility in global financial markets

“The Malaysian economy expanded by 3.7% in 2023. Moving forward, growth is expected to improve in 2024, driven by the recovery in exports and resilient domestic expenditure. Export growth is turning positive after contracting since March 2023 and will continue to be supported by stronger global trade,” Bank Negara said, adding that tourist arrivals and spending are poised to rise further.

The central bank noted that continued employment and wage growth remain supportive of household spending.

It said investment activity will be bolstered by progressing multi-year projects in private and public sectors, implementing catalytic initiatives in national master plans, and increased investment realisation.

Bank Negara said upside risks to growth mainly emanate from greater spillover from the tech upcycle, more robust tourism activity and faster implementation of existing and new projects.

“Headline and core inflation stood at 1.5% and 1.8% respectively in January 2024, trending in line with expectations. Inflation in 2024 is expected to remain moderate, broadly reflecting stable demand conditions and contained cost pressures,” it said.

However, this outlook continues to be highly dependent on the implementation of domestic policy on subsidies and price controls, as well as global commodity prices and financial market developments.

Bank Negara noted that the ringgit is currently undervalued, given Malaysia’s economic fundamentals and growth prospects.

“The Government and Bank Negara are taking coordinated actions to encourage repatriation and conversion of foreign investment income by government-linked companies (GLCs) and government-linked investment companies (GLICs).

“These actions are contributing to greater inflows, lending support to a firmer ringgit. Over the medium term, ongoing structural reforms will provide more enduring support to the ringgit,” it added.