Argentine polls give slight edge to opposition ahead of uncertain primaries

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s opposition is polling with a slight lead for the upcoming August primaries, usually a reliable bellwether for the outcome of the presidential election, but with many voters ready to snub the ballot box the results are far from certain.

“There is a lot of apathy,” said political analyst Carlos Fara, who predicted the Aug. 13 vote will see more abstentions and perhaps blank votes – which are included in the final count – than in any primary election since 2011.

Most polls peg the center-right opposition alliance Together for Change (JxC) with a slight edge against the center-left ruling coalition Union for the Homeland (UP).

Over 10 percentage points behind is political outsider Javier Milei’s Liberty Advances party, which hopes to win votes from those disillusioned with politics.

The primaries will decide the candidates who will compete in the Oct. 22 elections, but polls vary on which candidates will win a place in the race.

Mariel Fornoni, director of the consulting firm Management & Fit, sees JxC candidates Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, the mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, and former security minister Patricia Bullrich as neck and neck.

But another consultancy, Analogias, sees Bullrich winning two-thirds of the JxC vote, while UP, adding the votes of Economy Minister Sergio Massa and his rival Juan Grabois, would come within a hairsbreadth of beating the opposition.

Massa is seen as likely to win a place in the presidential vote, but the country’s severe economic crisis has favored Milei, who carries an “emotional vote”. Pollsters consider his supporters could favor Bullrich, who is seen as more right-wing, in the October vote.

But voter apathy makes any outcome hard to predict.

“There is a great uncertainty,” said Fornoni. “This coincides with what we face in the polls. Seven out of 10 do not want to answer by telephone or in person.”

“This climate of apathy clearly makes some of the vote more volatile,” added Fara. “It’s not going to be a normal election from any point of view.”

(Reporting by Lucila Sigal; Additional reporting by Juan Bustamante and Reuters TV; Writing by Sarah Morland; Editing by Sandra Maler)