Asian stocks, currencies rise on US rate cut wagers

TAIWAN stocks surged to a record high on Monday leading regional equities broadly higher, while currencies gained on the dollar as investors firmed up expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.

A U.S. inflation report due later in the global day could bolster easing expectations as headline inflation is forecast to slow.

MSCI’s index tracking equities in emerging markets was up 0.5% hovering at its highest since April 2022. It had jumped 1.7% last week.

Trading was thin on Monday as financial markets in Malaysia were closed.

Taiwan shares rose as much as 1.9% boosted by a global tech rally, with TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker and major supplier to Apple hitting an all-time high.

On a macro side, data on Friday showed Taiwan’s June inflation came in slightly higher-than-expected. In the Philippines, shares were up as much as 0.7%, while Thai stocks added as much as 0.4%.

Globally, investors await U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s address before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the crucial consumer price report on Thursday, to assess the timing of a rate cut.

In Asia, interest rate decisions from South Korea and Malaysia are due on Thursday, where expectations are for a hold for now.

“The market is eyeing a cut (by Bank of Korea) as early as August, but we believe it is still conditional as the forex level remains a concern, and housing prices (have) started to rise again,” analysts at Barclays said.

Recent inflation data from countries such as Thailand and the Philippines have shown an easing trend, giving some leeway to the central banks to cut rates.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has more scope to cut interest rates at its next meeting in August after annual inflation slowed in June, its governor Eli Remolona said.

Elsewhere, South Korean shares inched 0.2% higher, while Singapore stocks lost 0.2%.

Regional currencies inched higher as the greenback remained on the back foot following surprisingly soft U.S. payrolls data on Friday, suggesting the Fed could start cutting interest rates as early as September. Markets are now pricing in 76% odds for a rate cut in September, up from 64% a week ago.

The Taiwan dollar, the South Korean won and the Indonesian rupiah gained 0.2%, each.

The Thai baht inched 0.1% higher, while the Singapore dollar and the Philippine peso were largely flat.

Markets are also awaiting China’s inflation data on Wednesday and advanced gross domestic product estimates from Malaysia on Friday.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** China’s central bank tweaks liquidity operations amid strong bond demand

** Prabowo’s free-meal plan stirs investor fears about Indonesia’s finances

** Vietnam targeting Q3 GDP growth of 6.5%-7.0%, inflation below 4.5%, PM says – Reuters