EPF likely to deliver better dividend for 2023 – economists

KUALA LUMPUR: The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) is likely to deliver a higher rate of dividend for 2023 should market conditions continue to be positive or improve in the second half of 2023 (2H 2023), said economists.

Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist and social finance head Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the EPF has demonstrated its critical competencies in generating investment income via a prudent investment strategy.

“Its active portfolio management has yielded a desirable result and continues to be guided by strategic asset allocation (SAA),” he told BK.

For the first half of this year, the retirement fund recorded a total investment income of RM33.19 billion, a rise of RM9.44 billion versus RM23.75 billion in the 2022 corresponding period.

The amount was after netting off listed equity write-downs recorded for the period under review and out of the RM33.19 billion total investment income, RM4.79 billion were generated from mark-to-market (MTM) gains of securities that have not been realised.

The MTM gains were mainly due to foreign exchange rate fluctuations.

Malaysia University of Science and Technology economist Geoffrey Williams said its 1H 2023 results were very strong, a combination of good management, quick capitalisation of returns, and some smart technical adjustments.

“Even if (the performance in) the 2H 2023 is in line with last year, the overall return should be stronger. So the dividend outlook is good and likely to be better than the 5.35 per cent in 2022,” he added.

EPF records high active members, economic recovery on track

EPF saw an all-time high of 8.47 million active members as of 1H 2023. This underscores the economic recovery is on track with more Malaysians being hired, Mohd Afzanizam said.

“This is reflected in the decline in the unemployment rate from 3.6 per cent in January 2023 to 3.4 per cent in June 2023. This means more Malaysians are receiving a steady income from their employment which then translates into higher contributions from the members,” he added.

Meanwhile, Williams said the increase in active members was due to people trying to rebuild their accounts after the withdrawals and also due to EPF’s good work raising awareness about the pension crisis.

“EPF is also one of the best investments with regular returns of between 5.0 per cent and 6.0 per cent compared to fixed deposits at barely 3.0 per cent. It is also broadening its products and services to members and its new online app is helping members track their investments more actively,” he added.

Non-contributory pensions scheme with new Malaysian Superfund

In 1H 2023, EPF recorded a 36 per cent growth in voluntary contributors to 535,307 from 393,966 a year ago. Total contributions accumulated were RM3.93 billion, a 46 per cent rise from RM2.70 billion accumulated in the corresponding period a year ago.

The EPF is also actively reaching out to employers to encourage them to consider contributing more than the statutory 12 per cent, or 13 per cent for employees earning RM5,000 per month or below.

Williams said the government must consider a non-contributory pensions scheme with a new Malaysian Superfund, which could be run by EPF given their very strong and successful track record.

“The outreach to employers is well-intentioned but likely to fall on deaf ears. Employers will not be willing to raise their EPF contributions especially since their wage costs will be rising due to the minimum, and the progressive wage in the near future,” he noted.

However, Mohd Afzanizam said such a campaign will promote greater financial literacy, a positive virtue that can help members to weather potential adversities in the future.

“Having said that, we shouldn’t be too rigid by employing a strategy that is one-sided. I’m not sure making it compulsory will solve the problem. The underlying issue is being prudent in financial management and being aware of potential threats arising from the financial scammers,” he added. – BK