Experts: Higher risks of flooding in second half of 2024

PETALING JAYA: La Nina is likely to return in the second half of the year and with the northeast monsoon expected in November, climate experts warn of more intense rainfall and higher risks of flooding in the country.

Academy of Sciences Malaysia fellow Dr Fredolin Tangang said forecasts by the Apec Climate Centre last month showed a possibility of slightly higher rainfall in that period.

He said the likelihood of a La Nina episode developing in August is almost 70% and increases to above 80% beginning October, citing forecasts by the US Climate Prediction Centre.

“If the La Nina materialises, more moisture will be in our region and we can typically expect higher-than-normal rainfall during the second half of 2024 and in early 2025,” said the climatologist.

This could likely result in widespread flooding during the northeast monsoon period.

National Antarctica Research Centre senior research fellow Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah said La Nina is expected to strengthen when the northeast monsoon period sets in.

He said there would be cold surges, resulting in more intense and longer rains.

“The rain belt can also be pushed inland instead of the coastal region.

“This can increase the risk of floods, landslides and also headwater with debris flow like that in 2021,” said Prof Azizan, also a senior research fellow at Universiti Malaya’s Institute of Ocean and Earth Sciences.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Prof Dr Edy Tonnizam Mohamad said water-related hazards – such as floods, debris flow, landslides and slope failures – were the most dominant incidents in these periods.

“Local authorities are advised to identify high-risk areas under their purview. Inform the most probably impacted residents on mitigation and response plans.

“Also check natural water channels that may be blocked by debris,” said Prof Edy Tonnizam, who is also UTM’s deputy vice-chancellor (development).