Mavcom anticipates stronger passenger traffic growth in 2024

KUALA LUMPUR: The Malaysian Aviation Commission (Mavcom) is anticipating a stronger recovery in the country’s aviation sector next year, with passenger traffic approaching 98% of 2019’s pre-Covid-19 level.

In a statement, Mavcom executive chairman Datuk Seri Saripuddin Kasim said passenger numbers in 2024 are expected to range from 93.9 million to 107.1 million passengers, driven by increased domestic and international travels, particularly to China and Asean.

Nevertheless, Saripuddin said there are potential challenges to consider such as rising jet fuel costs, the ringgit’s depreciation, possible delays in aircraft deliveries, and workforce issues, which add an element of caution to Mavcom’s projections.

“While a recent resurgence of COVID-19 cases has been observed in December 2023, Mavcom believes that its impact on the aviation industry will not be as serious as it was previously.

“So far, the recovery to pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels is expected to stay on the forecasted trajectory,” he added.

Saripuddin made his comments in conjunction with the release of the 14th edition of Mavcom’s industry report, Waypoint, which showed impressive growth in passenger traffic post-Covid-19 pandemic.

According to the report, passenger traffic reached 69.9 million in the first 10 months of 2023, which led Mavcom to revise its 2023 forecast higher to between 84.5 million and 86.5 million passengers.

Malaysia’s air cargo volume, meanwhile, saw a downturn of 15.3% year-on-year to 4.7 billion freight tonne kilometres (FTK) in the third quarter of 2023.

Mavcom lowered its 2023 air cargo forecast to a decrease of between 14.1% and 13.5%, representing 18.7 billion to 18.8 billion FTK.

However, the commission anticipates a positive shift in 2024 to growth of 6% to 6.6%, potentially reaching 19.8 billion to 20 billion FTK.

“This expected upswing is attributed to the low base effect in 2023, a possible improvement in the global technology cycle, ongoing recovery in China, and broader economic stabilisation,” it said.

Mavcom also reported that 173 additional air traffic rights (ATR) were granted in the first nine months of 2023, of which 44 were for domestic routes and 129 for international destinations.