Modi could sweep Indian election, Congress may hit record low, says survey

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – A coalition led by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party could win nearly three-fourths of parliamentary seats in elections starting this month, according to a survey, while the main opposition Congress could sink to a record low.

The immensely popular Modi is riding high on the back of strong economic growth, handouts and the January inauguration of a Hindu temple on a contested site in the Hindu-majority country, despite his poor job-creation record and rural distress. Elections will be held in seven phases between April 19 and June 1 and votes will be counted on June 4.

Modi’s National Democratic Alliance coalition could win 399 of the 543 seats in the lower house of parliament while his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alone is projected to win 342, according to an India TV-CNX opinion poll published on Wednesday. The majority mark is 272 seats and Modi’s target for his alliance is to win more than 400.

Five years ago, the BJP won 303 seats and its alliance more than 350.

Congress could fall to 38 seats, a record low, from 52 in 2019, according to the survey conducted in March that covered nearly 180,000 people.

Its “INDIA” coalition partners that have agreed to jointly contest the elections are expected to win a total of 94 seats, according to the survey. Big regional party Trinamool Congress, which is part of “INDIA” but contesting in its home state of West Bengal alone, could win 19 seats.

Opinion polls have a mixed record in the diverse country of 1.42 billion people.

Like in the previous two elections, the BJP is expected to do very well in the country’s most populous state Uttar Pradesh, winning 73 of the 80 seats there.

In the prosperous south of the country, where the BJP has struggled to make much headway, the party could see good numbers from Karnataka, the only state in the region it has ruled locally.

(Reporting by Krishna N. Das in New Delhi; Editing by Devika Syamnath)