Trump, food supplies lead climate outlook in 2024

NEW YORK: After a year of record heat, climate change has become a critical issue for countries worldwide. And still, headwinds from rising interest rates to political debates over environmentally-focused investing have made tackling global warming more difficult.

Indeed, a study last year found that global efforts to reach net-zero carbon emissions are failing in every way, with the exception of the boom in electric vehicle sales.

Will the story change in 2024?

Renewable energy will continue to grow worldwide in 2024, boosted by government incentives, supportive policies and a global push to decarbonise economies.

Solar costs are at an all-time low and China is again forecast to dominate the market this year, according to BloombergNEF (BNEF).

Worldwide wind installations are expected to hit another record, although the pace of growth will be slower than solar as wind developers battle high interest rates and supply chain costs.

US President Joe Biden came to power, in part, by promising his climate plans would finally redress long-standing inequalities.

If Donald Trump wins this November, US Republicans are promising to enact their radical “Project 2025,” which would amount to a brutal assault on climate action, gutting Biden’s various environmental rules, with the ultimate aim of repealing the landmark Inflation Reduction Act.

A Trump victory would also add another strident climate denier to the roster of world leaders, which now includes Javier Milei in Argentina and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands.

The European Union (EU) likes to present itself as the world’s most climate-ambitious region.

But an energy crisis unleashed by the war in Ukraine, high inflation and the rise of polarising far-right parties make it hard for some conservatives that spearheaded the greener energy transition to continue championing these policies on the campaign trail.

The continent’s climate future will depend on who can form a majority in the EU parliament after June’s elections.

After agreeing to “transition away from fossil fuels” at COP28 in the United Arab Emirates, the next United Nations climate talks will be hosted by Azerbaijan, another country rich in oil and gas.

A main focus for negotiators in Baku will be to agree on a new climate finance goal to help poor countries recover from climate disasters and adapt to a hotter planet.

There will also be strong debate over the future of natural gas. Azerbaijan has already started to promote its gas as a cleaner energy alternative.

With the El Nino weather phenomenon continuing into this year, climate scientists anticipate more record-breaking temperatures that are set to contribute to more dangerous storms, wildfires and floods.

With all indications pointing to continued warm conditions across the ocean, 2024 could break into the top five most active hurricane years.

Scientists will also be keeping their eyes on the poles – where ice has melted at disturbing rates.

While forecasters expect El Nino to fade by this summer, its effects will last for months to come – from higher inflation to drought and impacts on food supply chains.

Food systems are thankfully starting to see more climate funding. New money pledged for food’s climate fight topped US$7bil during this year’s COP28 summit.

The financing has been promised for helping farmers curb their footprint and adapt to climate change, including through innovation and regenerative agriculture.

BNEF expects automakers to sell 16.7 million battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2024.

While that would be up 20% from where the researcher expects sales to end up in 2023, it’s about 4% lower than what BNEF estimated in June.

Tougher economic conditions for US customers was cited as one of the reasons for the slowdown in growth. There will be a greater variety of models on the market this year, though, as more super-sized electric sports utility vehicles roll into dealerships.

The drumbeat against environmental, social and governance is almost certain to increase with the US election, led by politicians such as Republican Jim Jordan of Ohio and his grand old party colleagues in states including Texas, Florida and Tennessee.

The backlash contributed to outflows from US-based funds in 2023. And the number of legal challenges is growing by the day. — Bloomberg